Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3) O/U 44
By Kyle Johansen
The Colts surprised a lot of people on opening day by taking the Chargers down to the wire on the road and covering the 6-point spread. If Indianapolis can cover the spread this week, they will be just the second team in the past four years to cover ATS in week two of back-to-back road games. Since 2015, a week two team on the road for back-to-back weeks is a pitiful 1-14 against the spread.
The Titans, meanwhile, embarrassed the Browns in Cleveland, picking Baker Mayfield off three times en-route to a blowout win as 5.5-point underdogs. Both the Titans defense, and the Colts offense impressed in week one, so how will they fair against each other?
Colts Offense vs. Titans Defense
If you were worried about T.Y. Hilton from a fantasy perspective, you probably exhaled a sigh of relief last week as Jacoby Brissett found him twice in the endzone. Hilton ended with 8 catches for 87 yards, while Brissett was an efficient 21-27 for 190 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT. And as impressive as Hilton and Brissett were, the offense ran through Marlon Mack who racked up 174 rushing yards on 25 attempts.
This wasn’t a pushover Chargers defense either that the Colts carved up. Going up against the Titans this week will be another test for Indy, but Tennessee was not expected to be any better on defense this year than the Chargers.
So, should we expect more of the same from the Indianapolis offense?
Early sharp action would suggest that yes, the Colts will find success again in Nashville. Currently, despite receiving 74% of the bets, only 61% of the money wagered is on the Titans. This means that the bigger bettors are on the Colts, and we always want to take notice of sharp money.
Titans Offense vs. Colts Defense
While Marcus Mariota wasn’t as accurate as Jacoby Brissett on Sunday, he was more efficient. Mariota silenced his critics by averaging an impressive 10.3 yards per attempt against the Browns. That number was good for 5th best among week one quarterbacks. His stat line on the day was 14-24 for 248 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT. Mariota also ran for 24 yards on 8 attempts.
Derrick Henry dominated the rest of the rushing attack with 19 carries for 84 yards and a TD. He also took a screen pass for 75 yards and another score.
Tight End Delanie Walker was Mariota’s favorite target, catching 5 of 6 targets for 55 yards and 2 TD’s. Rookie first round pick A.J. Brown made the most of his 4 targets, with 3 receptions for 100 yards.
It couldn’t have been much easier for the Titans on offense. While their team was aided by a very Brownish 18 penalties, the Titans made the most of it all game long, winning 43-13.
The Colts were a top 10 defense by most metrics last year, so the Titans should be in for more of a fight this Sunday. The Colts also have the personnel to potentially limit Delanie Walker, which could be key to pulling off the upset.
This game opened at Titans -2.5 and has moved up to -3 with heavy juice at -120. It seems that the market is not ready to trust Jacoby Brissett just yet, and were impressed by the Titans deconstruction of the Browns. If you want to take the Colts, you can get a juice free even money line at +3. If you’re inclined to take the Titans, I would wait for some buy-back on Indy rather than pay the -120 to lay 3.